Southlake's Median Price Jumped as Its Appraisal Roll Fell. Which One Describes Your House?

What is a Southlake home worth this fall? Two official sources give two opposite answers. The monthly NTREIS MLS summary produced by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M shows Southlake's single-family median sale price at $1,725,000 in September 2026. A year earlier it was $1,200,000, so that's an increase of nearly 44%. The City of Southlake's FY 2027 budget overview, dated August 14, reported the first decline in the city's appraised value in at least thirty years. Total appraised value fell 0.7% to $15.4 billion.

If you're buying here, both numbers will reach you during the transaction. The median shapes how a listing gets priced. The appraisal roll shapes the tax bill you inherit. Neither one measures the house in front of you, because the median moves with whichever homes closed that month while the roll follows Tarrant Appraisal District's reappraisal calendar. The figure that will actually change your cost of owning here hasn't been set yet. It arrives with the 2027 reappraisal.

A month with 36 closings

Look at September's surge next to the months before it.

Medians in June and July 2026 came in below the same months in 2025. August was modestly higher. Then September jumped. It's hard to read that as one market steadily appreciating. A more likely reading is that small monthly samples swing with whatever sold that month. The September 2025 baseline had only 18 closings, so a year-over-year comparison started from a thin, low point. In September 2026, the average sale price was $2,181,579 against a median of $1,725,000. That gap says a handful of high-end closings pulled the month upward.

Median price per square foot also climbed, from $329.88 in September 2025 to $400.63 in September 2026. So the month's homes were pricier per foot, not just bigger. Still, the report counts only sales entered in the NTREIS MLS, so private and off-MLS sales aren't included. It also notes that current-month sale counts are projections until every closing has been entered. When the whole city produces a few dozen closings a month, the mix of homes can move the median more than the market does.

The September figures that track market conditions more directly are pace and negotiation. Median days on market dropped from 57 to 49. Sellers received 95.2% of list price, up from 91.7%. Active listings fell from 128 to 115, and months of inventory went from 4.0 to 3.5. Those changes point to a somewhat firmer market for sellers. That's a far cry from a 44% repricing. Tarrant County as a whole posted 95.1% sold-to-list and 3.5 months of inventory in September, nearly matching Southlake despite a $350,000 county median. On those measures, Southlake's negotiating conditions look a lot like the rest of the county.

An appraisal roll that wasn't measuring 2026

The falling appraisal roll is easy to read as the correction the median failed to show. It has a different cause. Tarrant Appraisal District reappraises residential property in odd-numbered years. Its approved plan held residential values at prior final values in non-reappraisal years, apart from new improvements and construction. As the Fort Worth Report put it, TAD "did not reappraise homes this year, meaning property values remained frozen at a higher, previous market value."

That framing points to a softer market countywide. In May, the Fort Worth Report reported chief appraiser Joe Don Bobbitt telling commissioners that "probably about 190,000" homes would likely have dropped in market value if TAD had reappraised this year. He added that a lower market value doesn't necessarily mean a lower appraised value, because of how homestead caps work. TAD's reappraisal plan also allows a homestead's appraised value to rise by up to 10% in a non-reappraisal year until it reaches market value. A freeze year doesn't mean every homestead's value stayed flat.

So Southlake's 0.7% decline came in a year when most homes weren't revalued at all. The city's budget reports the decline and its effect on the tax rate. It doesn't break the change down by property type. For a buyer, the practical point is that the roll lags the market and doesn't describe it. The city's "average appraised home value" of $1,085,031 is a roll figure built on the same calendar. Set it next to the September median and you're comparing a frozen tax number to one month of sales.

How the falling roll shapes the tax bill

A falling roll still matters, because it drives the rate math. Southlake's budget explains that taxable value and the no-new-revenue rate move in opposite directions. When values fall, the rate needed to collect the same revenue goes up. For FY 2027, that put the no-new-revenue rate at $0.301616, above the existing $0.295. The council adopted $0.290 at its September 15 meeting, a half-cent cut that lands below the no-new-revenue rate.

Here's how the layers stack on a Southlake homestead for FY 2027, using the city's own figures:

1. City rate. $0.290 per $100 of valuation. Community Impact reported an estimated city bill of $2,483 on the $1,085,031 average home, down from $2,526 at the prior rate.
2. City homestead exemption. The budget keeps the maximum 20% exemption, which lowers taxable value on the average home by $217,006. The city calculates the combined effect of the exemption and the rate cut as an equivalent residential rate of $0.231.
3. School district homestead exemption. Under SB 4 and voter approval of SJR 2, the mandatory school homestead exemption rose from $100,000 to $140,000 beginning in tax year 2025, according to the Texas Comptroller. It lowers taxable value for school taxes only. It doesn't change a home's appraised market value.
4. Utilities. Starting October 1, Southlake raised water rates 15% and sewer rates 5%, and residential trash and recycling went up $0.58 a month to $21.46, per the city's announcement.

Neighboring cities are absorbing the same lower valuations in different ways. The Fort Worth Report noted that Colleyville is considering a 13% tax increase. If you're comparing these two suburbs, the city line of the tax bill can differ even where the appraisal calendar is identical. This is general information, not tax or legal advice. Confirm the exemptions and rates for your specific property with the appraisal district or a tax professional.

The calendar that matters more than either number

The roll's lag has a set end date. On September 8, the TAD board voted 5-4 to reappraise residential property in 2027 and keep the odd-year schedule. Rick Barnes, Matt Bryant, Keziah Farrar, Eric Morris and Callie Rigney voted for it. Wendy Burgess, Fred Campos, Eric Crile and Gloria Pena voted against, arguing appraisals should happen every year. TAD board seats are also on the November ballot.

For someone closing in Southlake now, the tax record on the listing reflects a value TAD didn't update this year. The next residential revaluation comes with the 2027 cycle. A buyer modeling carrying costs should treat the current appraisal as a placeholder. A more useful plan runs a few scenarios on how the 2027 value, the exemptions above and the 10% homestead cap might combine.

Local development will add to that 2027 roll. Shivers Farm broke ground September 23, Community Impact reported. The 40-acre project is planned to include 37 single-family homes, 110,000 square feet of retail, offices, a park and a Whole Foods, with the residential section targeted for completion by June 30, 2029. On September 15, the council voted 3-4 against an amendment that would have allowed gated private streets in its two residential sections. On October 6, according to Community Impact, the council approved a tax increment reinvestment zone, or TIRZ, covering the project's 25.9-acre commercial district. Final project plans are scheduled for presentation November 3, with a vote November 17. Across Southlake, the city reported about $110.4 million in new construction value this year, roughly 85% of it residential.

October's full MLS picture comes next. MetroTex says monthly statistics for areas outside Houston generally come out around the 20th day after the month ends, so October 2026 data should arrive around November 20. That release will show whether September's median holds or falls back toward the summer's $1.4 million range.

FAQ

Did Southlake home prices go up 44% this year?

The September 2026 median was 44% higher than September 2025's. That comparison rests on 36 closings this year against 18 last year. June and July 2026 medians were lower than the same months in 2025.

Why did Southlake's appraised value fall if homes weren't reappraised?

The city's budget reports a 0.7% decline and explains how it affects the tax rate. It doesn't list causes by property type. Residential values were mostly held at prior levels under TAD's odd-year schedule.

When will Tarrant County homes be reappraised?

In 2027, under the schedule the TAD board kept with its 5-4 vote on September 8, 2026.

If you're pricing a Southlake purchase this fall, the useful work is separating what a home will sell for from what it will cost to hold once the 2027 reappraisal lands. Janell Branch builds both models side by side. That covers comparable sales filtered for the home's actual tier and a carrying-cost range across likely appraisal outcomes, so your offer reflects the asset and not a one-month median. Schedule a consultation to run those numbers on the homes you're considering.